Archives for March 2013

Thoughts on Poker and Medicine

While listening to Simon Carley on risk at #SMACC2013 I had one of those thoughts.

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First I hope any serious poker players can forgive my over simplifications of a wonderful game. I also hope everyone can forgive my extreme stretching of this metaphor.


So why is medicine like a poker game?
It’s about prediction and probabilities, sometimes we are accurate and can be quite sure of ourselves but sometimes we get caught out by a surprise card or unlikely diagnosis.

In emergency medicine we often concern ourselves with the dangerous diagnoses, most poker players consider these options and likelihood their opponent will draw them. If you have played against a person/disease many times you can be more confident that you will be able to  judge their strength or recognise their tells.

In both luck plays a role that both doctors and card players are uncomfortable with. Everyone will have a “bad beat” where you are confident that you have the correct response or reaction but something unlikely/rare happens and you lose. This leads to both groups having superstitions and sayings which are similar.

“You play the man not his cards” sounds a lot like “It matters more which patient has the disease than which disease the patient has”

Like poker, medicine can be played at a number of stakes. Is it a life and death situation or just trying to rid someone of a minor irritation.

Texas Holdem

Medicine is most like Texas holdem (heads up).
I’ll explain why with an explanation of how it’s played and the similarities.

Heads up poker is played against one other person. You have your own cards and there are a number of communal cards which you make your best hand from. In this way a poker hand reflects a medical consultation information is slowly revealed and you attempt to gauge your position and certainty.

The rounds are as follows:

Pocket cards:

File:Pair of Aces.jpg

Firstly you are given two cards, an initial impression. You know from a glance if this patient is sick or not. Your system 1 is firing on all cylinders. You may get an instant diagnosis from the end of the bed, ?pocket Aces.

But you also know when you don’t have an idea. You know it will be hard or perhaps you just don’t want to play this hand.

Everyone makes their bets, some times this is easy. The patient is dry start some fluids, pain relief/Raise. Other times you don’t want to initiate much treatment until you have more information/Check.
In medicine you can’t really fold. unless you take the next chart (don’t be this person).

 The flop:

Three cards are turned over. This equates well with the history, it’s where the money is. Based on what you know about the patient and you impression most times you can have a very good idea about how you are placed. But there is some difficulty. Many diseases are difficult to tease out, are you being bluffed by your opponent. Previous experience with the opponent/disease can help you here. Are they likely to play passively or do they often show their strength?

The Turn:

This is the physical exam. (might be giving too much credit here)

This adds to what has come before. The reaction to this, tells/focal signs often increase your confidence in your diagnosis. But again it can leave you feeling unsure. But often it makes minimal difference, your impression can remain unchanged based on presence or absence of some signs. This is also often when you take a little time to think of any other possibilities you may have forgotten, a few extra questions whilst examining.

 The River:

 The investigations. Everything is back, all the information you are going to get is there.

This confirms or refutes your previous thoughts. You often know where you stand are you “the nuts” ?

But everything can change and swing based on one investigation/the final card. Is the bloody D-dimer positive? 

Then the final rounds of betting, are you all in for one diagnosis or are you still unsure of yourself? Often you know your badly placed (Pt is sick) but you can’t be certain of why.

 Finally the hands are revealed; in medicine like in poker you may never find out if you were right. Your opponent may never reveal their cards.

The best you can hope for is to learn from your mistakes, minimise your losses and be ready to play again.

But remember, in the end the house always wins.